Water for Food in Bangladesh: Outlook to 2030

This study assesses the changing consumption patterns of rice in Bangladesh and its implications on water demand by 2030. Rice dominates food and water consumption patterns in the country; it contributed to 72% of the total calorie supply from food, and 81% and 79% of the total cropped and irrigated area, respectively, in 2010. Forecasts using time series models show rice demand for food consumption, which was 172 kg/person/ year in 2008, will have a negligible increase by 2 kg/person by 2030. The demand for rice for feed will double with increasing animal products in the diet, which is only 4% of the calorie intake in 2008. Between 2000 and 2010, the total population and demand for rice have increased by 15% and 22%, and these will increase further by 22% and 25%, respectively, over the next two decades. Forecasts of rice yield, area and production show that the country can meet the increasing demand for rice and can also have substantial production surpluses. However, the rice surpluses will come at a considerable environmental cost, because the demand for groundwater consumptive water use from irrigation alone could exceed the natural recharge in many locations. Bangladesh can mitigate potential water crises by limiting rice production to meet the requirements of self-sufficiency. Increases in water productivity of both Aman (wet season) and Boro (dry season) rice production can help too. A carefully designed deficit irrigation regime for Boro rice can increase transpiration, yield, water productivity and production, and reduce the pressure on scarce groundwater resources. Simultaneously, attention must also be given to exploring the potential of recharging groundwater using the vast amount of monsoon floodwaters to alleviate the stress on groundwater resources.