Coupling a Time-dependent Two-cylinder Cumulus Model with a Time-dependent Hail Growth Model to Forecast Maximum Hail Size on the Ground

Coupling a Time-dependent Two-cylinder Cumulus Model with a Time-dependent Hail Growth Model to Forecast Maximum Hail Size on the Ground

by Fusheng Jia

125 pages· 2007· ISBN 9780494332689
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A time-dependent, two-cylinder cumulus model coupled with a time-dependent hail growth model is developed to simulate hail growth and forecast maximum hail size on the ground. Observed upper air soundings were used as input to initialize the coupled cumulus-hail model. Sensitivity experiments were carried out to examine the influence of changes of cloud and hail parameters on the hail growth. The new coupled cumulus-hail model technique was used to simulate hail storms for three summers of 1983 to 1985, using afternoon sounding data sampled over the Alberta Hail Project (AHP) area. For each day, the forecast hail size on the ground was compared with daily observations of maximum hail size collected within the AHP area. The skillfulness of the new model was quantified by calculating various forecasting skill scores.

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