Annual Energy Outlook With Projections 2014

"The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's 'Annual Energy Outlook 2014' (AEO2014) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged, the AEO2014 Reference case provides a basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. AEO2014 also includes alternative cases that explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Many of the implications of the alternative cases are discussed in the Issues in Focus of AEO2014. Key results highlighted in the AEO2014 Reference and alternative cases include: Growing domestic production of natural gas and oil continues to reshape the U.S. energy economy, largely as a result of rising production from tight formations, but the effect could vary substantially depending on expectations about resources and techonology. Industrial production expands over the next 10 to 15 years as the competitive advantage of low natural gas prices provides a boost to the industrial sector with increasing natural gas use. There is greater upside uncertainty than downside uncertainty in oil and natural gas production; higher production could spur even more industrial growth and lower the use of imported petroleum. Improvement in light-duty vehicle (LDV) efficiency more than offsets modest growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that reflects changing driving patterns, leading to a shart decline in LDV energy use. Evolving natural gas markets spur increased use of natural gas for electricity generation and transportation, as well as expanded export opportunities. Improved efficiency of energy use in the residential and transportation sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels such as coal for electricity generation help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions."--Page ES-2.